Apple Supplier Estimates Cut on iPhone 18 Pro and Duo Production

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) faces reduced production forecasts for both its new Pro iPhones and its first foldable, according to GF Securities analyst Jeff Pu, who described initial pre order wait times as lukewarm.

Pu lowered his combined iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max production estimate to 72 million units, attributing the reduction to constraints associated with the new variable aperture camera. He separately cut his 2026 build estimate for the iPhone Duo to 6 million units from 7 million, citing production challenges with the hinge.

Pu's reading of the pre order window found a three to four week wait in the United States for iPhone 18 Pro Max models at 256GB and 512GB across all colours, and for the burgundy 1TB configuration. He recorded two to three weeks for the Pro Max in glacier at 256GB and 512GB in China.

Demand appeared weaker elsewhere in the range. Pu quoted one to two week waits in the United States for black and glacier 1TB Pro Max models, and found the 1TB Pro Max in silver, most 2TB Pro Max configurations and nearly every iPhone 18 Pro model available immediately on launch day. Burgundy at 256GB was the only iPhone 18 Pro exception.

Pu also expects the iPhone 18 Pro Max to lose some buyers to the iPhone Duo, whose pre orders open on 16 October ahead of availability on 23 October.

He maintains a Hold rating on Apple with a price target of $369.